A recent report from the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), released earlier this month, warns of an increased wildfire risk during the hottest months of the year for the region. While this isn’t new, May typically marks the start of fire season, considering the wildfires that occurred as early as January, it’s important to stay vigilant and take preventive measures to reduce the chances of fires starting and spreading.
The NIFC explaints that since the beginning of the water year on October 1, precipitation levels across central and southern California have remained well below average. The driest areas include eastern San Bernardino and Riverside Counties, along with all of Imperial County.
Recent rain on April 26 temporarily improved conditions by increasing moisture levels in live and dead vegetation. However, the long-term lack of rainfall and a below-normal snowpack have left larger fuels, such as timber, unusually dry. These factors are expected to contribute to a gradual increase in fire potential as the summer progresses.
The outlook for June points to elevated fire risk in areas such as:
- Central Coast Interior: inland mountainous and valley regions behind the central California coast
- Sierra Foothills: lower mountain slopes at the base of the Sierra Nevada
- Western Mountains: mountain ranges west of the Sierra Nevada, including the Coast Ranges
- Southern Mountains: mountain ranges in SoCal like the San Gabriel and San Bernardino Mountains
Forecast models indicate that neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions will persist through the summer. Cool sea surface temperatures off the California coast may help maintain a stronger-than-usual marine layer through May, but this effect is expected to diminish by June, reducing natural humidity and increasing the chance of fire activity inland.
By July and August, the fire threat is expected to expand further. The Southern Sierra region, which includes the southern part of the Sierra Nevada near Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, the South Coast area covering Los Angeles, Orange County, and parts of San Diego County, as well as various mountain areas across central and southern California, are projected to see above-normal fire potential.