This winter could look dramatically different from the last few. In an update released yesterday, the Climate Prediction Center confirmed that the odds of this year’s El Niño strengthening into a so-called “super” El Niño — the most intense classification on record — are now above 90%.
How we got here
In early June 2026, the NOAA declared conditions had developed in the tropical Pacific. Since then, the pattern has continued to intensify. Yesterday’s ENSO Diagnostic Discussion reported sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific, with subsurface waters running even warmer. The Climate Prediction Center said El Niño is expected to keep strengthening through the rest of the year, with peak intensity most likely between October and December. Forecasters currently estimate about a 69% chance this event surpasses every El Niño on record dating back to 1950.
El Niño is defined by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Those warmer waters shift the position of the jet stream, which in turn reshapes storm tracks, rainfall, and temperature patterns across North America — effects that tend to become most pronounced once the pattern peaks in winter.
What it could mean nationally
In the short term, strong El Niño patterns are associated with hotter summers in parts of the country, and this year has already delivered several heat waves. El Niño also tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, consistent with this year’s relatively quiet start to hurricane season.
But winter is where El Niño’s fingerprint becomes most visible. A typical El Niño winter pushes the storm track southward, bringing wetter conditions to the southern U.S., including the Gulf Coast and Southeast, while the northern tier — the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Ohio Valley — tends to see warmer, drier conditions than usual.
What it could mean for California
For California, a strong El Niño historically raises the odds of a wetter-than-average winter, particularly across Southern California. Past strong El Niño years — most notably 1982–83 and 1997–98 — produced some of the state’s rainiest winters on record, along with significant flood damage.
More rain brings tradeoffs. Along with potential drought relief, California also faces heightened risk of flooding, mudslides, and debris flows. El Niño winters have also been linked to higher-than-normal tides, raising the risk of coastal flooding and beach erosion, along with conditions that can fuel harmful algal blooms off the coast.
Even with a stronger El Niño, NOAA is careful to note that outcomes aren’t guaranteed. As the Climate Prediction Center put it, an event of this magnitude makes El Niño-related impacts more likely, but not certain.
