California could be heading toward a potentially strong El Niño developing in spring and summer 2026, with some forecasts suggesting it could become an unusually intense event, even described as a potential “super” or “Godzilla” El Niño.
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, conditions are expected to transition from neutral to El Niño between June and August, with about a 62% probability of development and persistence through the end of the year.
Some long-range model discussions and media interpretations suggest the possibility of a strong or even very strong event, though scientists stress uncertainty remains high at this stage. The phenomenon could be “the strongest El Niño event in the last 140 years”, Paul Roundy, an atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany, told the San Francisco Chronicle.
What spring and summer 2026 could look like
If El Niño continues to develop through spring, California would likely first see indirect and transitional effects rather than extreme weather immediately. During spring, the main impact would be atmospheric instability: temperature swings, irregular precipitation patterns, and lingering late-season storm activity in some coastal and northern regions.
NOAA seasonal outlooks also suggest a broader tendency toward above-normal warmth across much of the western U.S.
